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Mesoscale Discussion 711
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0711
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...TX South Plains into the TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...199...

   Valid 102217Z - 110015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 199

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts
   will continue into the early evening, and potentially spread north
   of WW 199. A somewhat more widespread severe wind threat may evolve
   with time a little later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...At 22Z, one cluster of vigorous convection is ongoing
   west of Lubbock, where multiple severe wind gusts have recently been
   noted on the TX Mesonet. This activity is ongoing along the northern
   edge of returning low-level moisture, with steep low/midlevel lapse
   rates supporting MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Deep-layer
   shear is relatively weak, with the KLBB VWP depicting modest
   unidirectional southerly flow through a deep layer. This environment
   will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest updrafts,
   though the more prevalent risk will likely be severe wind gusts, as
   outflows consolidate and small clusters move northward parallel to
   the deep-layer flow. 

   Further north, another storm cluster has developed east of Amarillo,
   within a similar environment, though moisture return is slightly
   slower in this region compared to areas further southwest. With
   time, an increasing severe wind and isolated hail risk may spread
   north of WW 199, potentially as far as the OK Panhandle. Watch
   extension or a small new watch may be needed north of WW 199.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32980327 35520245 36500219 36790159 36780068 36340027
               35570013 34290059 33380111 32840184 32740247 32770305

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