Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 713
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 713 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0713
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 102345Z - 110115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues across Tornado Watch
   197. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two may accompany
   any storm that can mature and become sustained in the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Robust and sustained surface-based storms have yet to
   materialize across Tornado Watch 197. Despite negligible convective
   inhibition (noted as early as 18Z via the GRB observed sounding), a
   90 kt 500 mb jet streak continues to lift northward into Ontario,
   with upper support largely absent across the Great Lakes region. A
   southwest-to-northeast surface boundary is draped across central WI
   and has served as the primary source for ascent/convective
   initiation in tandem with strong surface heating. 

   At the moment, confidence is low in an organized severe threat
   developing given overall weak forcing and a gradually diminishing
   cumulus field. Nonetheless, 23Z mesoanalysis depicts 2500-3500 J/kg
   MLCAPE along and ahead of the boundary given 7-8C/km mid-level lapse
   rates atop 70F surface dewpoints. ARX and GRB VAD profilers show
   some veering in the 0-3km layer, with modestly curved hodographs
   depicting supercell potential (with all severe hazards possible) for
   any storm that can mature and become sustained before 02Z.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44278781 43548820 43208887 43138969 43299046 43569097
               44669072 45868979 46068858 45938786 45258752 44278781 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities