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Mesoscale Discussion 713
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MD 713 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0713
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 102345Z - 110115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues across Tornado Watch
   197. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two may accompany
   any storm that can mature and become sustained in the next couple of

   DISCUSSION...Robust and sustained surface-based storms have yet to
   materialize across Tornado Watch 197. Despite negligible convective
   inhibition (noted as early as 18Z via the GRB observed sounding), a
   90 kt 500 mb jet streak continues to lift northward into Ontario,
   with upper support largely absent across the Great Lakes region. A
   southwest-to-northeast surface boundary is draped across central WI
   and has served as the primary source for ascent/convective
   initiation in tandem with strong surface heating. 

   At the moment, confidence is low in an organized severe threat
   developing given overall weak forcing and a gradually diminishing
   cumulus field. Nonetheless, 23Z mesoanalysis depicts 2500-3500 J/kg
   MLCAPE along and ahead of the boundary given 7-8C/km mid-level lapse
   rates atop 70F surface dewpoints. ARX and GRB VAD profilers show
   some veering in the 0-3km layer, with modestly curved hodographs
   depicting supercell potential (with all severe hazards possible) for
   any storm that can mature and become sustained before 02Z.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44278781 43548820 43208887 43138969 43299046 43569097
               44669072 45868979 46068858 45938786 45258752 44278781 

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