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Mesoscale Discussion 714
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into the TX South Plains and
   western OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...199...200...

   Valid 110006Z - 110130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 199,
   200 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for rather widespread severe wind gusts will
   continue as storms consolidate this evening, in addition to the
   threat for isolated large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Wind gusts over 80 mph have recently been noted with a
   northward-moving thunderstorm cluster currently approaching
   Amarillo. This cluster will eventually move into a somewhat less
   unstable environment, though the hot and well-mixed environment into
   the northwest TX Panhandle will still remain favorable for severe
   wind gusts potentially in excess of 65 kt. 

   Further south, a surging outflow with a more easterly component of
   motion has recently been noted north of Lubbock. If deep convection
   can be sustained along the leading edge of the outflow, a separate
   severe-wind producing cluster may move east-northeastward into the
   southern TX Panhandle later this evening. 

   Across the eastern TX Panhandle, numerous hail producing storms
   developed earlier this evening (with a couple reports of 2+"
   diameter hail), but a trend toward storm consolidation has occurred
   in this region as well, which could result in an increasing severe
   wind risk. 

   There is some potential for one or more outflow-driven clusters to
   spread into western OK with time, which would pose a threat of
   severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. Watch issuance is
   possible into parts of western OK if this scenario appears
   increasingly probable.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/11/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33840260 35160245 36600199 36720095 36700054 36479964
               35889925 34809997 34360058 34000113 33730174 33840260 

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