|Mesoscale Discussion 716|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Areas affected...portions of northwestern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110249Z - 110345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginally severe gust/bout of large hail may accompany
the stronger storms for a couple of hours. A WW issuance is unlikely
given the isolated, short-term nature of the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A multicellular thunderstorm cluster is progressing
east over Lake Michigan and is expected to approach Leelanau and
Benzie counties in the next half hour. While a downward trend has
been noted in MRMS mosaic MESH, some of the latest radar data shows
that these storms may still be producing hail up to 1 inch in
diameter. Across northwestern Lower Michigan, temperatures have been
cooling into the lower 70s F, with CAPE diminishing overall.
However, 02Z mesoanalysis depicts 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE present
ahead of the ongoing storms. RAP forecast soundings show a modest
depth of CAPE above 700 mb, along with modest curved hodographs
below 3 km. As such, elevated storms possessing some mid-level
rotation may pose a threat for marginally severe hail or a damaging
gust in the next couple of hours before diminishing (per last few
runs of the HRRR).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44308652 44848629 45188585 45198535 44938483 44448473
44128485 44068534 44108601 44308652
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