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Mesoscale Discussion 716
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110249Z - 110345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginally severe gust/bout of large hail may accompany
   the stronger storms for a couple of hours. A WW issuance is unlikely
   given the isolated, short-term nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular thunderstorm cluster is progressing
   east over Lake Michigan and is expected to approach Leelanau and
   Benzie counties in the next half hour. While a downward trend has
   been noted in MRMS mosaic MESH, some of the latest radar data shows
   that these storms may still be producing hail up to 1 inch in
   diameter. Across northwestern Lower Michigan, temperatures have been
   cooling into the lower 70s F, with CAPE diminishing overall.
   However, 02Z mesoanalysis depicts 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE present
   ahead of the ongoing storms. RAP forecast soundings show a modest
   depth of CAPE above 700 mb, along with modest curved hodographs
   below 3 km. As such, elevated storms possessing some mid-level
   rotation may pose a threat for marginally severe hail or a damaging
   gust in the next couple of hours before diminishing (per last few
   runs of the HRRR).

   ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44308652 44848629 45188585 45198535 44938483 44448473
               44128485 44068534 44108601 44308652 

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