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Mesoscale Discussion 717
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0717
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1050 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Areas affected...TX South Plains/Northwest TX into western OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...201...

   Valid 110350Z - 110545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 201

   SUMMARY...Some severe wind threat will persist overnight, though a
   gradual decreasing trend is expected with time.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing from western OK into eastern portions
   of the TX South Plains. The most intense portion of the line at
   0330Z is southwest of Childress, in a region where a recent outflow
   intersection occurred, with multiple 70+ mph gusts observed from the
   West TX Mesonet in this area. Further north, the outflow has surged
   rather far ahead of the convection across western OK, with wind
   gusts in the 40-45 mph range noted thus far. 

   Despite the presence of increasing MLCINH downstream, a 40-50 kt
   low-level jet (noted on the KFDR VWP) will help to maintain this
   QLCS for some period of time into the overnight hours. The greatest
   near-term threat will likely reside from northwest TX into southwest
   OK, where the embedded bowing segment near the aforementioned
   outflow intersection will continue surging northeastward into a
   strongly unstable environment. Later on, a gradual decrease in the
   severe wind threat is expected into the early morning hours, though
   some gusty winds may eventually spread east of WW 201 along a
   weakening outflow.

   ..Dean.. 05/11/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33440200 34739999 35369963 36549948 36569870 36059836
               35019817 33539888 33389914 33150065 33220180 33440200 

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