Mesoscale Discussion 0718
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/east-central MN into far
   western WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111132Z - 111300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may exist for the next
   couple of hours this morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
   this time.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell has recently developed and split
   over south-central MN. The left split, which is moving northward
   towards the Twin Cities, has strengthened and become dominant.
   Although large-scale forcing remains weak over southern MN, there
   are steepened mid-level lapse rates present over this region per the
   ))Z MPX sounding and latest mesoanalysis estimates. Around 1500-2500
   J/kg of MUCAPE and strong (50+ kt) of deep-layer shear will likely
   support continued organization and intensity for the left-split
   supercell for the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail will be
   the main threat with this supercell as it approaches the Twin Cities
   metro through 13Z. At this point, the overall severe threat should
   remain fairly isolated, as it does not appear that additional
   convection will form due to weak forcing. Watch issuance currently
   appears unlikely, but convective trends with this supercell will be
   closely monitored.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   43969351 44249388 44629390 45129353 45199275 44949220
               44549221 44229247 43949305 43969351