|Mesoscale Discussion 719|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022
Areas affected...Portions of southeastern SD...far northwestern
IA...and far southwestern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111244Z - 111415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may persist for the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed to the north of a
warm front this morning across far southeastern SD. This activity is
probably tied to modest low-level warm advection, as ascent
associated with an MCV over the central Plains is still well to the
south. These thunderstorms will likely remain elevated, but will
have access to substantial MUCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) owing to
steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OAX sounding. Modestly
enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds are contributing to
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which will support supercell
structures. Isolated large hail is expected to be the main threat
with this activity over the next couple of hours. Owing to nebulous
large-scale forcing, it remains unclear whether any additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this morning.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat will probably remain too
isolated to justify watch issuance in the short term.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43259789 43879780 44249688 44179575 43589550 43019604
42809659 42809688 42939727 43069763 43259789
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