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Mesoscale Discussion 719
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern SD...far northwestern
   IA...and far southwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111244Z - 111415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may persist for the next
   couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed to the north of a
   warm front this morning across far southeastern SD. This activity is
   probably tied to modest low-level warm advection, as ascent
   associated with an MCV over the central Plains is still well to the
   south. These thunderstorms will likely remain elevated, but will
   have access to substantial MUCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) owing to
   steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OAX sounding. Modestly
   enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds are contributing to
   40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which will support supercell
   structures. Isolated large hail is expected to be the main threat
   with this activity over the next couple of hours. Owing to nebulous
   large-scale forcing, it remains unclear whether any additional
   strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this morning.
   Accordingly, the overall severe threat will probably remain too
   isolated to justify watch issuance in the short term.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43259789 43879780 44249688 44179575 43589550 43019604
               42809659 42809688 42939727 43069763 43259789 

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