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Mesoscale Discussion 727
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0727
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Colorado...far southwest
   Kansas...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120005Z - 120200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail/damaging gusts are possible
   with the strongest sustained storms. The severe threat is expected
   to remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...While overall convective coverage has decreased over
   the past couple of hours, a couple longer-lived, left-moving
   supercells have produced severe winds/hail (especially across the
   far northwest Texas Panhandle). Areas ahead of a diffuse dryline
   have already experienced peak surface heating amid weak upper
   support, suggesting that an uptick in convective coverage will
   remain unlikely. Until nocturnal cooling and boundary-layer
   stability sets in though, modest buoyancy will remain in place ahead
   of the ongoing storms given the presence of a deeply mixed boundary
   layer overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The KAMA VAD
   profiler depicts a relatively straight hodograph, indicative of
   continued splitting cells with large hail potential (given the steep
   mid-level lapse rates). As long as the boundary-layer remains
   well-mixed (with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km), efficient
   downward momentum transport via evaporative cooling will support a
   damaging gust with any storms that can mature. Still, the overall
   severe threat should remain sparse and a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34450270 37120242 39440178 39640099 39330060 38500066
               37160118 35870155 34760197 34540238 34450270 

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