ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 120450 SPC MCD 120450 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-120645- Mesoscale Discussion 0730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 Areas affected...Southeast SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120450Z - 120645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may produce hail overnight. Coverage of severe storms is expected to be limited, thus a watch is not likely. However, trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form over southern SD and northern NE. This appears to be associated with low-level warm/moist advection and lift above a relatively cool/stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings suggest this activity is rooted around 700mb, but steep mid-level lapse rates are yielding around 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Effective shear values are sufficient for a few elevated rotating storms overnight across southeast SD capable of large hail. Current indications are that intense storms will be isolated and a watch may not be needed. But trends will continue to be monitored. ..Hart/Broyles.. 05/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44100001 44699881 44619693 43949641 43429673 42529842 42339972 43130031 44100001 NNNN