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Mesoscale Discussion 734
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...Central/southern Mississippi...parts of
   southeastern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121700Z - 121830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong heating beneath a retrograding upper cyclone will
   support potentially scattered storms across parts of Mississippi
   into southeast Louisiana. Damaging gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Modifying the 12Z observed JAN soundings for current
   surface observations, very little MLCIN remains. Visible satellite
   trends also confirm this with deepening cumulus/weak thunderstorm
   development in east-central Mississippi. With time, additional
   storms are possible due to weak cooling/height falls from a
   retrograding cyclone off the southeastern coast. Wind shear along
   the western flank of this feature (20-30 kts effective) will be
   sufficient for multicellular cluster storm modes. Strong heating and
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support a risk for damaging winds as
   storms intensify. Some CAM guidance shows potential for cold pool
   organization which could produce a corridor more organized damaging
   gusts.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32099132 33239012 33758891 33428850 33148830 32368838
               31168968 31039013 30989050 31219117 31369136 32099132 

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