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Mesoscale Discussion 735
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0735
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...far north-central Kansas across much of central
   Nebraska and toward southeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 121839Z - 122115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity
   over the next several hours, with damaging winds and hail expected.

   DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of thunderstorms have
   strengthened over the past hour, evolving out of initially elevated
   convection. Given the increasing outflow production, further upscale
   growth is possible with this line of storms as strong instability
   exists downstream across NE and into SD. Increasingly strong
   deep-layer shear to the north will also favor damaging hail with the
   stronger cells.

   A secondary line of storms is also anticipated along the cold front
   later today as it pushes east across NE. In addition, a more robust
   supercell/tornado threat is also possible over SD later today, and
   will be addressed in later discussions.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40059970 40740000 41529973 42429930 42729918 43099898
               43419809 43279752 43079725 42799718 42019734 41299752
               40719772 40089805 39869851 39769892 39739935 39729958

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