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Mesoscale Discussion 736
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...Northeastern Wisconsin and western Michigan Upper

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121849Z - 122015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible this
   afternoon along the warm front and nearby lake/bay breeze
   boundaries. Strong buoyancy will support large hail initially along
   with a threat for damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Despite mid-level ridging, strong surface heating of a
   very moist airmass south of the warm front has contributed to large
   buoyancy (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) across northern Wisconsin. Visible
   satellite shows deepening showers and some lightning activity in the
   Wausau vicinity. Continued heating along the warm front and lake/bay
   breeze boundaries to the east could allow widely scattered to
   scattered storms to develop. Severe storm coverage is uncertain
   given the otherwise unfavorable large-scale support. Effective shear
   is relatively weak (20-30 kts), but supportive of modest
   organization should storms mature. Large hail could occur initially,
   but the more broad threat will likely be damaging wind gusts. If
   enough storms develop, some congealing of cold pools can be expected
   with an coincident increase in damaging wind potential.

   An outflow boundary in northwestern Wisconsin is also advancing
   east. As this boundary interacts with the warm front, some potential
   for additional storm development will exist. These storms would pose
   a similar wind and hail threat.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44489001 44739050 44909068 45259092 45639073 45809007
               46248866 46298792 46098775 45718799 45348806 44958805
               44668883 44518956 44489001 

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