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Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022
Areas affected...central to northeast Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...
Valid 121942Z - 122145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
SUMMARY...The probability for widespread severe wind gusts
(including several 75+ mph wind gusts) is increasing across central
to northeastern Nebraska. Portions of this area will be be upgraded
to a Moderate risk (wind-related).
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KUEX shows a line of
convection rapidly lifting to the north/northeast across southern
NE. This activity has produced multiple severe wind reports over the
past hour, including an 80 mph wind gust over Dawson county, NE.
Recent IR imagery and lightning trends suggest this line is
strengthening as MLCIN continues to erode amid strong daytime
heating across central/eastern NE (where temperatures are climbing
into the low 90s). Further intensification is expected through the
afternoon as daytime heating continues to drive boundary-layer
mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of this complex.
Furthermore, this line is moving into an environment with increasing
MLCAPE (up to 2500-3000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (near 30-45
knots) per latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Consequently, the
potential for widespread severe wind (including significant severe
winds over 75 mph) is increasing for parts of central to
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41229933 41589936 42349879 42769818 42779727 42489690
41769706 41189781 40969828 40859884 41229933
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