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   Mesoscale Discussion 0737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...central to northeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...

   Valid 121942Z - 122145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206

   SUMMARY...The probability for widespread severe wind gusts
   (including several 75+ mph wind gusts) is increasing across central
   to northeastern Nebraska. Portions of this area will be be upgraded
   to a Moderate risk (wind-related).

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KUEX shows a line of
   convection rapidly lifting to the north/northeast across southern
   NE. This activity has produced multiple severe wind reports over the
   past hour, including an 80 mph wind gust over Dawson county, NE.
   Recent IR imagery and lightning trends suggest this line is
   strengthening as MLCIN continues to erode amid strong daytime
   heating across central/eastern NE (where temperatures are climbing
   into the low 90s). Further intensification is expected through the
   afternoon as daytime heating continues to drive boundary-layer
   mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of this complex.
   Furthermore, this line is moving into an environment with increasing
   MLCAPE (up to 2500-3000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (near 30-45
   knots) per latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Consequently, the
   potential for widespread severe wind (including significant severe
   winds over 75 mph) is increasing for parts of central to
   northeastern NE.

   ..Moore.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41229933 41589936 42349879 42769818 42779727 42489690
               41769706 41189781 40969828 40859884 41229933 

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