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Mesoscale Discussion 738
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0738
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...much of eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 121947Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop along the fronts in South
   Dakota later today, and move into eastern South Dakota from the
   southwest. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front approaching central
   SD and extending into the NE Panhandle. Meanwhile, a warm front
   extends from near Pierre to south of Aberdeen to Brookings. Visible
   imagery shows substantial towering CU along and south of this area
   where temperatures are rising and MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Midlevel
   lapse rates are very steep, and suggest explosive supercell
   development will be possible from central into northeast SD.
   Low-level shear favors tornadoes near the warm front, and a strong
   tornado will be possible.

   To the south, a line of severe storms is quickly taking shape over
   central NE, and will rapidly move north/northeast across the MO
   River after 21Z. Significant wind damage will be possible into
   southeast SD through evening as storms expand into the most unstable
   air.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44309646 43549639 42929691 42989992 43220040 43610040
               44560048 45210012 45519921 45569859 45399748 44819666
               44539650 44309646 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2022
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