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Mesoscale Discussion 740
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...Upper Michigan...Northern Wisconsin...Northeastern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...207...

   Valid 122154Z - 130000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 207

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue over the next few
   hours across parts of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan.
   Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Green Bay has multiple
   strong to severe line segments ongoing across far northeastern
   Wisconsin and far western Upper Michigan. The storms are located
   along an axis of moderate to strong instability, with the RAP
   estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, water
   vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving northeastward
   across southwestern Wisconsin, where a vorticity maxima near 14 is
   analyzed by the RAP. This combined with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots,
   evident on the Green Bay WSR-88D VWP will be favorable for severe
   storms. The favored mode will likely remain linear, although an
   isolated supercell or two will be possible. Wind damage and large
   hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat will continue to
   move northeastward further into western Upper Michigan over the next
   couple of hours.

   ..Broyles.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46708778 46838963 46729014 46449046 46039055 45639023
               45398957 44988847 44878775 45258703 46098671 46708778 

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