ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140307 
SPC MCD 140307 
OKZ000-KSZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Areas affected...far southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214...

Valid 140307Z - 140430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214
continues.

SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat continues into the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Several storms developed in southern Kansas with the
only remaining storms being a left mover moving toward central
Kansas and a right mover across northern Oklahoma. Despite
relatively low reflectivity, both of these storms have had reports
of severe hail indicating more of a LP storm mode. It is unclear how
much longer these storms may persist. The 01Z HRRR insists storms
should have already dissipated, but recent radar trends show
additional cells developing across Barber county, KS, northwest
Alfalfa county, OK, and Major county, OK. This uptick in activity
could be associated with a southeastward moving mid-level shortwave
as indicated by water vapor imagery and the veering mid-upper level
flow from KVNX. If this additional convection develops, this could
increase the potential for upscale growth and a greater wind threat
into the overnight hours. However, inhibition is increasing and
forcing is not that strong which leads to considerable uncertainty
in the evolution of this convection. If more upscale growth appears
likely, watch 214 may need to be expanded south to cover the threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36249893 37129844 37589820 37919786 38079745 37769700
            37059691 36239706 35539735 35249805 35389878 35609913
            36249893 

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