ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161637 
SPC MCD 161637 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-161830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Far Southern WV...Western/Southern
VA...Western/Central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161637Z - 161830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon. Some strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging
wind gusts as the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s across much
of western and central NC, with slightly lower temperatures farther
north in western/south-central VA and adjacent far southern WV.
Dewpoints range from the mid 60s across central NC into the mid 50s
across southern VA. Recent mesoanalysis indicates that these
thermodynamic conditions have eroded any convective inhibition
across the region. While the strongest forcing for ascent will be
displaced north, enough ascent is still expected across the region
along and ahead of the cold front to promote thunderstorm
development.  As a result, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
gradually increase over the next few hours.

While the stronger mid to upper flow will be displaced north, there
is still enough buoyancy in place to support robust updrafts.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, but some hail
is also possible, particularly over south-central and southeast VA
where some modest mid-level flow will be in place.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35738221 37018135 37888003 37277736 35157870 35188093
            35738221 

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