ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162223 
SPC MCD 162223 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162223Z - 162330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
storm cluster moving off of Lake Erie.

DISCUSSION...A fast moving cluster of storms developed earlier today
across eastern Michigan and is now crossing Lake Erie. The
environment ahead of these storms is very deeply mixed with at least
weak buoyancy. Therefore, some stronger mid-level flow (~50 knots at
3-4 km per CLE VWP) may mix toward the surface with this
thunderstorm activity. Recently, the Akron, Ohio ASOS gusted to 43
knots as thunderstorms moved through the region, showing what the
environment is capable of. The cluster over Lake Michigan is more
organized and moving faster than the storms to the south. Therefore,
expect a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts for the next 1 to 2
hours before the threat wanes as the boundary layer cools later this
evening.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41488173 41858119 42188017 42207973 41967957 41437967
            41028022 40888074 40928132 40958138 41488173 

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