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Mesoscale Discussion 863
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0863
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

   Areas affected...Central Texas to the Arklatex region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

   Valid 212314Z - 220115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail continues
   across WW 258 - primarily along and west of the I-35 corridor in the
   near term. Thunderstorm development across northeast TX and the
   Arklatex region remains likely later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional reflectivity data continues to show
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and west of the
   I-35 corridor across central TX. GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically
   integrated ice trends reveal the pulse-like nature of this
   convection with several intense, but relatively short lived
   updrafts. The overall poor organization of this convection so far is
   largely attributable to storm motions along/behind the cold frontal
   boundary (leading to destructive storm interactions) and weak
   storm-relative winds through the column. However, the combination of
   65-70 F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of the cold
   front are maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment for
   intense updrafts. A few 1 inch hail reports support this idea, and
   this general trend should continue for the next few hours. 

   To the northeast along the front, a few attempts at convective
   initiation have been noted, but weak forcing for ascent has
   precluded robust CI so far. A southward surge of the cold front
   after 00 UTC is depicted in most guidance, and should boost the
   potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with an attendant
   severe hail/wind threat.

   ..Moore.. 05/21/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29740060 30380057 30930007 31199950 31539900 32039825
               32749713 33499592 33889528 34389487 34489431 34129394
               33589388 33159393 32749423 32069516 31309619 30589745
               29809856 29549945 29469985 29410023 29470049 29740060 

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