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Mesoscale Discussion 863 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Areas affected...Central Texas to the Arklatex region
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...
Valid 212314Z - 220115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail continues
across WW 258 - primarily along and west of the I-35 corridor in the
near term. Thunderstorm development across northeast TX and the
Arklatex region remains likely later this evening.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional reflectivity data continues to show
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and west of the
I-35 corridor across central TX. GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically
integrated ice trends reveal the pulse-like nature of this
convection with several intense, but relatively short lived
updrafts. The overall poor organization of this convection so far is
largely attributable to storm motions along/behind the cold frontal
boundary (leading to destructive storm interactions) and weak
storm-relative winds through the column. However, the combination of
65-70 F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of the cold
front are maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment for
intense updrafts. A few 1 inch hail reports support this idea, and
this general trend should continue for the next few hours.
To the northeast along the front, a few attempts at convective
initiation have been noted, but weak forcing for ascent has
precluded robust CI so far. A southward surge of the cold front
after 00 UTC is depicted in most guidance, and should boost the
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with an attendant
severe hail/wind threat.
..Moore.. 05/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29740060 30380057 30930007 31199950 31539900 32039825
32749713 33499592 33889528 34389487 34489431 34129394
33589388 33159393 32749423 32069516 31309619 30589745
29809856 29549945 29469985 29410023 29470049 29740060
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