ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231720 
SPC MCD 231720 
NCZ000-SCZ000-231915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of extreme northern South Carolina into
southern and central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231720Z - 231915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust may occur with an approaching squall line.
The severe threat is expected to be isolated enough to preclude a WW
issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...A squall line with a history of strong wind gusts
continues in advance of a warm-core low across SC and is poised to
move into NC through mid afternoon. Ahead of the squall line,
temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F into central NC,
contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings suggest
the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer up to 850 mb wherever
surface temperatures can reach 85 F. Given continued heating into
NC, a couple strong to potentially damaging gusts will be possible
with this squall line. However, severe gusts are expected to be very
sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 05/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34208042 34808068 35298075 35888044 35908005 35917933
            35917895 35807846 35647797 35207795 34597842 34307901
            34157971 34208042 

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