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Mesoscale Discussion 887
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0887
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Areas affected...Northwest South Carolina into southwest North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 264...

   Valid 232200Z - 240000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 264 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for low-topped supercells will continue for
   at least the next couple of hours, maintaining the potential for
   weak tornadoes across northwest South Carolina into far southwest
   North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Recent reflectivity and velocity data from KGSP and
   KCAE continue to show transient supercell structures across
   west/northwestern portions of SC along and just ahead of a surface
   warm front. VWP observations from both WSR-88Ds shows strong veering
   in the 0-3 km layer with 0-1 SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2. While
   instability remains very limited, RAP forecast soundings adjusted
   for observed surface conditions suggest that ELs for mixed-layer
   parcels are still reaching the mid-troposphere and through a
   substantial layer with 40-50 knot winds (as noted in the VWP obs).
   As such, the thermodynamic environment remains sufficient to realize
   the favorable kinematics. This regime will largely remain in place
   for the next couple of hours as the post-tropical low continues to
   move into western NC where temperatures are in the low to mid 70s.
   Thermodynamics will likely lose sufficiency later this evening
   further downstream as the low moves into a cooler air mass and due
   to the onset of diurnal cooling, but the exact timing of when this
   will occur remains somewhat unclear.

   ..Moore.. 05/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34718261 35158243 35468217 35698186 35788154 35668095
               35298055 35058056 34598105 34258122 34008147 34018171
               34338221 34718261 

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