|Mesoscale Discussion 887|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
Areas affected...Northwest South Carolina into southwest North
Concerning...Tornado Watch 264...
Valid 232200Z - 240000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 264 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for low-topped supercells will continue for
at least the next couple of hours, maintaining the potential for
weak tornadoes across northwest South Carolina into far southwest
DISCUSSION...Recent reflectivity and velocity data from KGSP and
KCAE continue to show transient supercell structures across
west/northwestern portions of SC along and just ahead of a surface
warm front. VWP observations from both WSR-88Ds shows strong veering
in the 0-3 km layer with 0-1 SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2. While
instability remains very limited, RAP forecast soundings adjusted
for observed surface conditions suggest that ELs for mixed-layer
parcels are still reaching the mid-troposphere and through a
substantial layer with 40-50 knot winds (as noted in the VWP obs).
As such, the thermodynamic environment remains sufficient to realize
the favorable kinematics. This regime will largely remain in place
for the next couple of hours as the post-tropical low continues to
move into western NC where temperatures are in the low to mid 70s.
Thermodynamics will likely lose sufficiency later this evening
further downstream as the low moves into a cooler air mass and due
to the onset of diurnal cooling, but the exact timing of when this
will occur remains somewhat unclear.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34718261 35158243 35468217 35698186 35788154 35668095
35298055 35058056 34598105 34258122 34008147 34018171
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