ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261536 SPC MCD 261536 TNZ000-ALZ000-261730- Mesoscale Discussion 0924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Areas affected...Central/northern AL into Middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261536Z - 261730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually intensify through the morning into early afternoon. Locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible with the strongest storms. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing this morning across northwest into west-central AL, along/ahead of a cold front and in advance of the deep-layer cyclone moving across the Ozark Plateau. Rather strong wind fields attendant to the cyclone are in place across the region. Recent VWPs from KHTX and KBMX depict favorable wind profiles for organized convection, with moderate deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat across this area is the generally limited instability. Extensive cloudiness will likely be maintained as cirrus continues to stream northward from convection near the Gulf Coast, but a slight uptick in available buoyancy is possible by late morning/early afternoon, if any filtered insolation can be realized. Any sustained organized storms would pose at least some threat for all severe hazards across the region, though the coverage and magnitude of the threat may be limited by generally weak instability. Watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term trends regarding storm intensity and downstream destabilization. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34058786 35278789 36498774 36578745 36588657 36488573 35408584 34678592 33848609 32498680 32318747 32478817 34058786 NNNN