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Mesoscale Discussion 955
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0955
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern SD...Extreme Southeast ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 290641Z - 290815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated strong wind gusts and hail
   continues.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an arc of elevated
   thunderstorms from near ABR southeastward to about 20 miles east of
   HON. A well-defined outflow boundary precedes these storms, with a
   44 kt gust recently reported at HON and a 31 kt gust reported
   farther south at MHE. The expectation is for this line to continue
   northeastward into the warm frontal zone extending from far
   northeast SD southeastward across southern MN. Despite the elevated
   character of this line, the relatively dry sub-cloud layer could
   still support a few stronger gusts, although the gust potential
   decreases with northeastward extent. Additionally, steep mid-level
   lapse rates will support the potential for isolated hail as well.
   The overall severe potential is expected to remain isolated, and an
   additional downstream watch is not currently anticipated.

   Farther south in far south-central SD, elevated storms have recently
   strengthened, potentially as a result of slightly stronger warm-air
   advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support the
   potential for large hail with these storms.

   ..Mosier.. 05/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44769883 45679839 46209756 46059668 45429662 43039784
               43189945 44769883 

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