ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292014 
SPC MCD 292014 
MNZ000-NDZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Areas affected...Northwest MN into far eastern ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 292014Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this
afternoon, with a threat of large hail and a couple of tornadoes.
Watch issuance is likely by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has recently been noted along a warm
front in northwest MN, and further south along a weak surface trough
toward west-central MN and far southeast ND. Despite rather
extensive cloud cover, modest heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
are supporting moderate instability near/south of the warm front,
with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses.
Weakening MLCINH and modest ascent within a weak warm-advection
regime will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon. 

Modest midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt
across the region, sufficient for some storm organization, with
potential for a few stronger multicells or marginal supercells.
Low-level flow/shear is not particularly strong, but will be locally
maximized near the warm front. If any supercells can be sustained
near the warm frontal zone across northwest MN, a tornado or two
will be possible, in addition to large hail. Further south along the
weak surface trough, the tornado threat will probably be somewhat
less, but a somewhat greater hail threat may be present due to
stronger instability. 

Watch issuance may be needed by 21Z, depending on observational
trends regarding a sufficient coverage and magnitude of the severe
threat.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   46289555 46269561 46059662 46109711 47069708 48619675
            48879590 48379531 46289555 

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