Mesoscale Discussion 1006
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of western north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012258Z - 020100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A lone supercell that formed on a front/outflow boundary
   intersection should pose an isolated large hail and severe wind
   threat in the short term. Due to the isolated nature of the threat,
   watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A single supercell is ongoing early this evening over
   Foard and Knox Counties in western north TX. Recent visible
   satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that this
   thunderstorm formed on the intersection of a cold front and outflow
   boundary from prior convection. Around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
   present along/near the outflow boundary. Although low-level winds
   are weak per recent VWPs from KDYX, easterly boundary-layer flow
   veers quickly to westerly at mid levels while modestly
   strengthening. Corresponding 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should
   prove favorable for continued convective organization in the short
   term, and large hail nearing 2 inches in diameter appears possible
   with the lone supercell. Strong to severe downdraft winds may also
   occur. At this point, nebulous large-scale forcing aloft suggests
   the overall severe threat will probably remain too isolated to
   justify watch issuance. But, trends will be closely monitored
   through the evening.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/01/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33419997 33680009 33939982 33969943 33819800 33339765
               33049805 33079895 33229955 33419997