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Mesoscale Discussion 1007
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Ohio into central
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

   Valid 012304Z - 020030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms should persist
   into this evening ahead of low-amplitude shortwave trough. Damaging
   wind gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2255Z, regional radar analysis showed several
   cluster of storms ongoing across WW301. The primary severe risk
   appears to be located across the western half of the watch with a
   more organized linear cluster developing across eastern OH into
   western PA. As deeper ascent and stronger flow aloft from the
   approaching shortwave move overhead, additional organization of the
   line appears possible this evening. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE) ahead of the storms and increasing effective shear
   (30-35 kt) should continue to support the cluster of storms as they
   move eastward into west-central PA. The predominately linear mode
   should favor a risk for damaging wind gusts, though some severe hail
   will also be possible given favorable buoyancy for strong updrafts.

   Farther to the west, several semi-organized clusters within central
   OH may pose a localized risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
   isolated hail this evening. Displaced from the stronger
   shear/forcing, storm organization should remain limited, driven
   largely by diurnal heating. Prior to nocturnal stabilization,
   isolated severe chances may persist before a gradual decrease in
   intensity expected later this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 06/01/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39908474 40348363 40788224 41278116 41718062 41838013
               41767940 41627888 41307846 40857845 40657880 40217947
               39968035 39818119 39758182 39698228 39448375 39438442
               39538480 39908474 

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