ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020038 
SPC MCD 020038 
TXZ000-NMZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...

Valid 020038Z - 020215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and wind gusts
continues across parts of far southeastern New Mexico into west
Texas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Most convection across far southeastern NM into west TX
has recently undergone a weakening trend. The 00Z sounding from MAF
still shows steep low/mid-level lapse rates, around 1800 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. But, convective inhibition
is forecast to further increase this evening, which may tend to
limit potential for additional strong to severe convection. Still,
isolated instances of severe hail and wind gusts may occur with the
strongest updrafts that are ongoing. Upscale growth into a small
bowing cluster may also occur over the next couple of hours as
convection spreads slowly east-southeastward across west TX. If this
occurs as some high-resolution model guidance suggests, then
severe/damaging wind gusts would become the main threat.

..Gleason.. 06/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29650269 29320289 29120331 29320367 29770378 32230401
            32620365 32750171 32520120 31090122 29650269 

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