Mesoscale Discussion 1021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031924Z - 032130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A waterspout or two is possible through the afternoon
   hours along the southern Florida coast and across the Florida Keys
   as low-level wind shear increases. However, buoyancy will remain a
   limiting factor until later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Shallow convection associated with a potential tropical
   cyclone (currently off the west coast of Cuba) has begun to
   overspread the waters off the southern FL Peninsula and the FL keys.
   Recent mesoanalysis and VWP observations have all shown an increase
   in 0-1 km SRH over the past 1-2 hours as the low approaches the
   region. This has allowed shallow convective showers to take on
   supercell-like organization with weak mesocyclones. 0-1 km helicity
   should continue to slowly increase as the low moves northeast.
   500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over the warmer ocean surface (where buoys are
   observing temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s) will continue to
   support the potential for organized shallow convection. Persistent
   rainfall onshore has limited diurnal warming (temperatures in the
   low to mid 70s) and overall instability. Consequently, the tornado
   threat will largely remain offshore for the afternoon, though a
   waterspout or two along the immediate FL coast is possible. The
   tornado threat will spread inland later this evening/tonight as
   higher theta-e air is advected north in tandem with strengthening
   low-level wind fields associated with the low.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24418190 24508219 24718190 24948134 25318122 25708155
               25958193 26158173 26058125 25658100 25438087 25368065
               25638040 26118025 26187997 26057980 25637995 25108020
               24738053 24528100 24418190