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Mesoscale Discussion 1031 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Areas affected...Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 042059Z - 042300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the far western Oklahoma
Panhandle and southeast Colorado may intensify as they move east
through the late afternoon and evening hours. A watch is possible in
the coming hours for parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and perhaps
southwest Kansas if the threat for severe hail/wind increases.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the far
western OK Panhandle and far southeast CO. Over the past hour,
storms have exhibited periodic bursts of lightning as well as
cooling cloud top temperatures. Although individual cells have
struggle to maintain intensity, low-level ascent along a surface
trough (and in the vicinity of a weak surface low) along with
locally reduced inhibition from prior attempts at CI is allowing for
continued re-development. A gradual uptick in convective intensity
is possible in the near term, with strong to severe winds the most
probable hazard given the well-mixed boundary layer and steep
low-level lapse rates. A possible mix of discrete cells and clusters
will meander eastward within the mean west/northwesterly flow regime
and move into the increasingly buoyant air mass in place across the
OK/TX Panhandles and southwest KS. As storms encounter this air
mass, deepening parcel trajectories will experience strengthening
effective bulk shear, which may support improving storm organization
and an attendant hail/wind threat. The exact timing of when this
uptick will occur remains somewhat uncertain, and latest hi-res
guidance has struggled to capture recent trends with this activity.
Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible by the late
afternoon/early evening hours if storm intensification can occur.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 34630143 35440197 36450214 37290214 37650158 37650081
37380017 36859984 35979972 35169978 34489993 34330048
34380098 34630143
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