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Mesoscale Discussion 1031
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas
   Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042059Z - 042300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the far western Oklahoma
   Panhandle and southeast Colorado may intensify as they move east
   through the late afternoon and evening hours. A watch is possible in
   the coming hours for parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and perhaps
   southwest Kansas if the threat for severe hail/wind increases.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the far
   western OK Panhandle and far southeast CO. Over the past hour,
   storms have exhibited periodic bursts of lightning as well as
   cooling cloud top temperatures. Although individual cells have
   struggle to maintain intensity, low-level ascent along a surface
   trough (and in the vicinity of a weak surface low) along with
   locally reduced inhibition from prior attempts at CI is allowing for
   continued re-development. A gradual uptick in convective intensity
   is possible in the near term, with strong to severe winds the most
   probable hazard given the well-mixed boundary layer and steep
   low-level lapse rates. A possible mix of discrete cells and clusters
   will meander eastward within the mean west/northwesterly flow regime
   and move into the increasingly buoyant air mass in place across the
   OK/TX Panhandles and southwest KS. As storms encounter this air
   mass, deepening parcel trajectories will experience strengthening
   effective bulk shear, which may support improving storm organization
   and an attendant hail/wind threat. The exact timing of when this
   uptick will occur remains somewhat uncertain, and latest hi-res
   guidance has struggled to capture recent trends with this activity.
   Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible by the late
   afternoon/early evening hours if storm intensification can occur.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   34630143 35440197 36450214 37290214 37650158 37650081
               37380017 36859984 35979972 35169978 34489993 34330048
               34380098 34630143 

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