Mesoscale Discussion 1033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska into northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

   Valid 050019Z - 050145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307 this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar data continues to show splitting
   supercells capable of large hail and locally severe gusts across
   parts of southern Nebraska this evening, aided by generally
   long/straight hodographs and 35-45 kt 0-6 km bulk shear per OAX VWP
   data. As this activity continues to move slowly southward, the risk
   of large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be the main threat in
   the near term. With time, there may be some tendency for convection
   to grow upscale as outflow spreads southward into a moist/well-mixed
   boundary layer characterized by lower 60s dewpoints and steep
   low-level lapse rates. While sporadic large hail will remain a
   concern, the risk of severe gusts up to 70 mph will increase with
   southward extent -- especially with any upscale-grown storm
   clusters.

   Eventually, convection should spread southward into northern KS
   where lower/middle 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
   are contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. As this occurs in
   conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet, further upscale
   growth will be possible and additional watch issuance may eventually
   be needed.

   ..Weinman.. 06/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40940055 41369939 41729712 41689644 41399626 40519624
               39829657 39659881 39780002 40140043 40490060 40940055