Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

   Areas affected...parts of northern and central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052012Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection developing over portions of north-central
   Kansas seems likely to increase in coverage over the next couple of
   hours, turning southeastward with time.  WW may be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of strong
   updrafts over the Phillips/Rooks County KS vicinity, northeast of
   the more cloudy/capped airmass that lingers across southwestern KS
   at this time.  This convection is occurring within the gradient on
   the eastern fringe of the axis of greatest mixed-layer CAPE over
   western Kansas, but still within a thermodynamic environment
   sufficient to support severe potential -- mainly in the form of
   large hail.

   Various CAM runs differ with respect to convective evolution with
   time, and given effects of the prior/overnight MCS, uncertainty
   persists in the short term.  Still, it appears likely that this
   cluster will gradually increase in coverage, and shift southeastward
   with time, on the northeastern fringe of the more capped
   environment.  Given the amply veering/increasing flow field with
   height supporting potential for severe weather, watch issuance is
   being considered for portions of the central Kansas vicinity.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39189954 39579903 39809853 39589744 38799637 37829647
               37639777 38099939 38789959 39189954