ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121926 
SPC MCD 121926 
MNZ000-NDZ000-122100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121926Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms may pose a risk for
occasional damaging wind gusts and hail through this afternoon. As
storms move nearer a warm front, uncertainty on the longevity of the
severe threat remains relatively high.

DISCUSSION...AS of 1915 UTC regional radar and satellite analysis
showed a couple thunderstorms along a weak frontal zone across
portions of eastern ND and and southern MB. Further intensification
of storms appears possible owing to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
negligible CINH west of a warm front farther east into northern MN.
30-45 kt of effective shear will likely support a
supercellular/cluster storm mode capable of mainly damaging winds
and hail from the northwest Angle, in through northwestern MN, and
far eastern ND. The longevity of the severe threat remains somewhat
uncertain owing to more stable conditions east of the frontal zone
across north-central MN. Hi-res guidance suggests storms will
quickly approach the warm frontal zone and may only present a brief
window for severe potential. While uncertain, the magnitude of
buoyancy and vertical shear does suggest some severe threat is
possible in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   47459720 48389737 48779724 49009678 49049612 49109545
            49209530 49449521 49419485 49319473 49059461 48439468
            47369518 47049526 46799527 46529565 46539590 46509609
            46599640 47459720 

NNNN