ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 142232 SPC MCD 142232 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-150100- Mesoscale Discussion 1168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Areas affected...Parts of KS...southeast NE...far southwest IA...and far northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142232Z - 150100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for storm development and a severe risk this afternoon/evening. A watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a deepening line of cumulus extending from southeast NE southwestward into central and south-central KS -- focused along a cold front draped over the area. Capping at the base of the EML has suppressed convective development thus far, though a modest increase in surface convergence and continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints should allow for isolated to widely scattered convective development during the next few hours -- especially over parts of central into northeast KS where cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated owing to stronger low-level convergence and decreasing MLCINH. While strong southwesterly midlevel flow atop southerly low-level flow is contributing to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented parallel to the surface cold front, the southerly flow in the 850-700-mb layer could lead to anafrontal convection initially. However, if supercell structures become established along/near the surface boundary, convective elements should track east-northeastward toward the warm sector. Given steep midlevel lapse rates and an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph, large hail will be the primary concern initially. Eventually, damaging winds could become a growing concern with any surface-based supercell structures or convective clusters. Trends are being monitored, and a watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40359818 40689753 40969689 41089594 40969559 40389537 39549613 38089896 37939995 38330027 39000007 39769918 40359818 NNNN