ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152044 
SPC MCD 152044 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of the western Carolinas into central and
eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152044Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may become more numerous later this
afternoon and evening. A broader potential for isolated damaging
wind gusts may evolve if clustering develops.

DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional satellite and radar imagery
showed several small clusters of thunderstorms ongoing/developing
across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians on the
eastern periphery of a large mid-level ridge. Driven mostly by
diurnal heating and subtle orographic influences, little
organization has been noted thus far. While forcing is quite
limited, additional storm formation appears quite possible through
the remainder of the diurnal cycle. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE will
support stronger updrafts where convective temperatures are
breached. With little vertical shear present (EBWD <15 kt),
organization of ongoing loose multi-cell clusters will hinge upon
downdraft consolidation and greater cold pool development late this
afternoon and evening. Should this occur, as hinted by some hi-res
NWP, an isolated damaging wind threat may arise with high
PWAT/water-loaded downdrafts and steep low-level lapse rates.
Uncertainty remains considerable, but the greatest risk for a
loosely organized cluster/weak MCS may evolve across portions of
southern SC and central GA into this evening. Conditions will be
monitored, but weather watch consideration is highly conditional
upon further storm intensification/organization.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
TAE...

LAT...LON   35968033 33848098 32778128 32068168 31868222 31828305
            31918381 32138425 32458460 33068487 33798516 34718476
            34908453 35218397 36048243 36338159 36358106 35968033 

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