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Mesoscale Discussion 1185
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

   Areas affected...east central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

   Valid 160220Z - 160345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm to the south of Emporia, KS may
   pose some continuing risk for severe hail and locally strong surface
   gusts for another hour or two, before perhaps spreading
   northeastward and weakening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong convection has become confined to an isolated
   intense cell, generally focused within an area of enhanced lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, to the south of the broad and deep
   cyclone centered over the eastern Canadian Prairies.  This has been
   supported by shear on the southern fringe of the stronger cyclone
   flow, and inflow of unstable air emanating from a boundary-layer
   characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 4000 J/kg.  

   As mid-level heights rise and boundary-layer cooling progresses
   during the next few hours, thunderstorm intensity seems likely to
   wane, though it is possible remnant convection may begin to shift
   back to the north/northeast before dissipating.

   ..Kerr.. 06/16/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38319611 38779496 38459434 37879590 37899694 38319611 

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