Mesoscale Discussion 1213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Areas affected...the Piedmont into coastal plain of North
Carolina...South Carolina and Georgia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...386...
Valid 172201Z - 172330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, 386
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development, gradually evolving
into growing clusters, will be accompanied by increasing outflow
with strong surface gusts through 8-9 PM. Occasional localized
gusts may exceed severe limits, and becoming potentially damaging.
A new severe weather watch probably will be issued downstream of WW
385 before it expires.
DISCUSSION...In areas not impacted by ongoing convective
development, a strongly heated (temps in the mid/upper 90s F) and
seasonably moist boundary-layer appears characterized by steep lapse
rates and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. This should support
substantive continuing upscale growth of convection, ahead of a
conglomerate outflow boundary now advancing to the southeast of the
southern Appalachians. Propagation off the higher terrain is being
aided by weak to modest (10-20 kt northwesterly deep-layer mean
flow), which may be sufficiently strong, coupled with the
thermodynamic profiles and precipitation loading, to support strong
surface gusts at least occasionally approaching 50 kt.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33648450 34318342 34718202 35058131 35478080 35717945
36647830 36247643 34217912 32278332 33648450