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Mesoscale Discussion 1213
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

   Areas affected...the Piedmont into coastal plain of North
   Carolina...South Carolina and Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...386...

   Valid 172201Z - 172330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385, 386
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development, gradually evolving
   into growing clusters, will be accompanied by increasing outflow
   with strong surface gusts through 8-9 PM.  Occasional localized
   gusts may exceed severe limits, and becoming potentially damaging. 
   A new severe weather watch probably will be issued downstream of WW
   385 before it expires.

   DISCUSSION...In areas not impacted by ongoing convective
   development, a strongly heated (temps in the mid/upper 90s F) and
   seasonably moist boundary-layer appears characterized by steep lapse
   rates and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  This should support
   substantive continuing upscale growth of convection, ahead of a
   conglomerate outflow boundary now advancing to the southeast of the
   southern Appalachians.  Propagation off the higher terrain is being
   aided by weak to modest (10-20 kt northwesterly deep-layer mean
   flow), which may be sufficiently strong, coupled with the
   thermodynamic profiles and precipitation loading, to support strong
   surface gusts at least occasionally approaching 50 kt.

   ..Kerr.. 06/17/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33648450 34318342 34718202 35058131 35478080 35717945
               36647830 36247643 34217912 32278332 33648450 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2022
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