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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

   Areas affected...Pars of northern and central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181639Z - 181915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms capable of
   sporadic large hail and locally damaging downbursts should increase
   through the afternoon hours. Convective trends are being monitored
   for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Along and south of an east-west oriented outflow
   boundary draped across parts of northern Florida, diurnal heating of
   a very moist boundary layer (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath
   seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates (per TBW/JAX 12z soundings)
   will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. Cumulus is already
   beginning to deepen along and south of the boundary, and convective
   initiation is underway amid minimal MLCINH. As low-level lapse rates
   continue to steepen, updrafts should gradually intensify along
   antecedent outflow and sea breeze boundaries. While weak deep-layer
   flow/shear should primarily yield pulse multicell-type convection,
   the aforementioned thermodynamic environment should support sporadic
   large hail and strong to locally damaging downbursts. With time,
   convective clustering could support an increasing severe wind risk.
   Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29288329 29488328 29628292 29498161 29168110 28538096
               27718169 27658231 27818291 28228287 28708277 29288329 

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