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Mesoscale Discussion 1235
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202035Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for isolated severe potential
   this afternoon. The main concerns would be sporadic large hail and
   locally strong gusts. Trends are being monitored, though watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is ongoing across parts
   of central Nebraska near Broken Bow -- south of a quasi-stationary
   surface boundary draped across northern Nebraska. While this area is
   somewhat removed from the large-scale forcing for ascent
   (characterized by neutral midlevel height tendencies), continued
   diurnal heating and increasing boundary-layer moisture beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates to the east/northeast of this activity could
   allow for some intensification during the next couple hours. While
   deep-layer shear remains modest (25-30 kt of effective shear),
   veering in the lowest 3 km could support a few loosely organized
   updrafts capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts.
   Given the anticipated localized/brief nature of the threat, watch
   issuance is not expected.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/20/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40800001 41330014 41830000 42149944 42459869 42459811
               42149760 41689732 40959773 40479880 40509966 40800001 

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Page last modified: June 20, 2022
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