ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220008 
SPC MCD 220008 
MOZ000-KSZ000-220145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Areas affected...parts of central through northeastern Kansas and
adjacent portions of northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...

Valid 220008Z - 220145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
continues.

SUMMARY...An intensifying and organizing cluster of thunderstorms
may pose increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts near
and north of the Interstate 70 corridor, east of Salina toward the
Greater Kansas City area through 9-10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually consolidating into a
small intensifying cluster approaching the Salina area, with merging
outflow beginning to contribute to a strengthening eastward
advancing cold pool.  Although deep-layer southwesterly mean ambient
flow is weak, convection does appear on the southern fringe of 30-40
kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer, which may be contributing to at
least modest vertical shear.

With the eastward acceleration of the surface cold pool,
strengthening southeasterly to easterly system-relative low-level
inflow emanating from an increasingly moist, but still strongly
heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer (with CAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg) over eastern Kansas may support substantive further
intensification of convection into the 01-03Z time frame.  This may
be accompanied by an increasingly well-defined lower/mid
tropospheric cyclonic vortex, strengthening westerly rear inflow and
increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts near and
north of the Interstate 70 corridor.

..Kerr.. 06/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39079768 39609615 39809455 38979455 38709579 38379721
            38759734 39079768 

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