Mesoscale Discussion 1264
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231843Z - 232015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across central
   and eastern Nevada where temperatures have warmed into the 80s and
   SPC mesoanalysis shows 250 J/kg MLCAPE. Some additional heating, in
   addition to cooling temperatures aloft, should lead to additional
   destabilization with MLCAPE around 400 to 600 J/kg this
   afternoon/evening. Effective shear around 25 to 30 knots should
   support multicell clusters or occasional rotating updrafts. The
   primary threat will be damaging winds due to the inverted-v
   thermodynamic profile and propensity for evaporatively cooled
   downdraft acceleration. This threat is expected to continue into the
   evening before waning after sunset. A watch is unlikely due to the
   isolated nature of the threat in a weakly unstable environment.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   37371431 37291577 37821651 39041728 40121695 41371550
               41461416 40891337 40321304 39581319 37871380 37371431