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Mesoscale Discussion 1264
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1264
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231843Z - 232015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across central
   and eastern Nevada where temperatures have warmed into the 80s and
   SPC mesoanalysis shows 250 J/kg MLCAPE. Some additional heating, in
   addition to cooling temperatures aloft, should lead to additional
   destabilization with MLCAPE around 400 to 600 J/kg this
   afternoon/evening. Effective shear around 25 to 30 knots should
   support multicell clusters or occasional rotating updrafts. The
   primary threat will be damaging winds due to the inverted-v
   thermodynamic profile and propensity for evaporatively cooled
   downdraft acceleration. This threat is expected to continue into the
   evening before waning after sunset. A watch is unlikely due to the
   isolated nature of the threat in a weakly unstable environment.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/23/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37371431 37291577 37821651 39041728 40121695 41371550
               41461416 40891337 40321304 39581319 37871380 37371431 

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