Mesoscale Discussion 1265
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of north-central KS and south-central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231857Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered severe storms capable of
   large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will increase
   between 20-23Z across parts of KS and NE. Watch issuance will be
   likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier elevated convection over
   north-central KS into southern NE, cloud clearing is allowing for
   boundary-layer heating/mixing amid upper 60s dewpoints. As a subtle
   midlevel impulse evident in water vapor imagery tracks eastward
   across parts of the area in conjunction with a deepening lee trough
   over the central High Plains, isolated high-based thunderstorm
   development may occur over parts of western KS/NE and track eastward
   into the increasingly moist/unstable airmass in the 20-23Z time
   frame. While less uncertain, additional convective development will
   be possible farther east in north-central KS into south-central NE
   -- where steep low-level lapse rates are developing along the
   western periphery of the recovering cold pool. 

   Current thinking is that a modest increase in midlevel
   west-southwesterly flow accompanying the subtle cyclonic impulse
   will result in 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear, which combined with
   the aforementioned destabilization should support organized
   convection including supercells. This activity should generally be
   focused from the eastern periphery of steep low-level lapse rates
   over northwest KS/southwest NE eastward along and north of a weak
   warm front lifting northward in central KS. Given modest midlevel
   lapse rates and an elongating mid/upper-level hodograph, large to
   very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercell
   structures along with locally severe gusts. In addition, a gradual
   increase in the easterly low-level flow component amid a somewhat
   sheltered boundary layer is expected as the lee trough deepens. This
   would yield favorable clockwise-turning low-level hodographs
   supportive of a tornado or two with any longer-lived surface-based
   supercells. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this
   afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39230047 39720077 40520079 40910055 40969924 40519812
               39919735 39809675 39249648 38529697 38909948 39230047