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Mesoscale Discussion 1266
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern Utah into far western Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231957Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this
   afternoon/evening across eastern Utah and far western Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...A few stronger cells have developed off the higher
   terrain in central Utah and eastern Utah/western Colorado. Dewpoints
   in the 50s with temperatures in the 80s have yielded MLCAPE around
   500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear is relatively weak
   (~25 knots per ICX VWP), but storms have shown at least some
   organization with a sustained supercell moving across Wayne county.
   The environment is similar across much of eastern Utah into western
   Colorado so additional more organized updrafts are possible. The
   primary hazard will likely be damaging winds given the deeply mixed
   sub-cloud layer, but the limited instability/shear should keep the
   overall severe wind threat isolated.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/23/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37251264 39631124 40351026 40330849 38130842 36950949
               36681042 36801177 37251264 

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