|Mesoscale Discussion 1266|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Areas affected...Eastern Utah into far western Colorado.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231957Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening across eastern Utah and far western Colorado.
DISCUSSION...A few stronger cells have developed off the higher
terrain in central Utah and eastern Utah/western Colorado. Dewpoints
in the 50s with temperatures in the 80s have yielded MLCAPE around
500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear is relatively weak
(~25 knots per ICX VWP), but storms have shown at least some
organization with a sustained supercell moving across Wayne county.
The environment is similar across much of eastern Utah into western
Colorado so additional more organized updrafts are possible. The
primary hazard will likely be damaging winds given the deeply mixed
sub-cloud layer, but the limited instability/shear should keep the
overall severe wind threat isolated.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37251264 39631124 40351026 40330849 38130842 36950949
36681042 36801177 37251264
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