Mesoscale Discussion 1267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...Far northeast SD into central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232056Z - 232330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for possible severe storm
   development this afternoon and evening. While uncertain, a watch
   could eventually be needed for parts of northeast SD into central
   MN.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a modest uptick in
   boundary-layer cumulus along a weak surface trough extending across
   parts of central MN into northeast SD. While boundary-layer flow is
   veered south of the surface boundary, weak low-level warm advection
   is supporting a modest increase in low-level confluence. Earlier 12Z
   soundings over the northern Plains showed a plume of steep midlevel
   lapse rates which has now overspread parts of MN per RAP
   mesoanalysis. The steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
   moist/deeply-mixed boundary layer are contributing to
   moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy -- strongest over northeast
   SD into western MN where surface temperatures have climbed into the
   middle/upper 90s beneath the core of the steeper lapse rates. 

   As diurnal destabilization continues amid the modest low-level
   confluence, isolated to widely scattered storm development may occur
   over parts of northeast SD into central MN this afternoon/evening.
   While deep-layer flow/shear is modest (25-35 kt of effective shear),
   the favorable buoyancy and at least some deep-layer shear could
   support isolated large hail initially. Eventually, damaging winds
   could become an increasing concern with any convective clustering
   amid the steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Overall confidence in
   storm development and maintenance is limited, though trends are
   being monitored and a watch could eventually be needed.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45909717 46649588 47299380 47309313 47029274 46489254
               45809276 45389329 44879655 45059710 45519732 45909717