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Mesoscale Discussion 1270
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...ast-central South Dakota...Central and Northern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240015Z - 240245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across parts of
   east-central South Dakota southward into central Nebraska. Wind
   damage and hail would be the primary threats. The severe potential
   appears marginal and weather watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
   trough in the western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is
   analyzed over central South Dakota, with a moist airmass is in place
   to the east and north of the low. Isolated convection is ongoing to
   the north of the low east of Mobridge. Surface dewpoints are
   generally in the mid 60s F along the instability axis, where the RAP
   has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined with
   large-scale ascent associated with the subtle shortwave trough will
   support continued isolated thunderstorm development this evening. A
   storm or two could also develop along a dryline southward into
   north-central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from central South
   Dakota into north-central Nebraska have 0-6 km shear around 35
   knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates are generally in the 7.5 to 8.0
   C/km range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts
   and hail.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45780014 45939959 45959902 45859852 45539817 45149821
               44509854 43889878 43049879 42359898 41779957 41380017
               41280050 41360093 41550119 41810122 42170108 42630088
               43470068 44240063 44870062 45280053 45550038 45780014 

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