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Mesoscale Discussion 1271
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1271
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...Minnesota...Far Northern Wisconsin...Far Northeast
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

   Valid 240055Z - 240300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and hail will be likely with the stronger
   cores across parts of central and eastern Minnesota over the next
   few hours. This threat will likely spread eastward into far northern
   Wisconsin. Additional storms with an isolated severe threat may
   develop across parts of far northeast Minnesota into western Lake

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Duluth
   shows a cluster of strong to severe severe storms about 50 miles to
   the southwest of Duluth. This cluster is located near a maximum of
   instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
   range. In addition to the instability, RAP forecast soundings
   southwest of Duluth show veering winds with height below 700 mb,
   with enough flow in the mid-level for severe storms. This combined
   with very steep lapse rates, exceeding 8.5 C/km in the low to
   mid-levels, will be favorable for wind damage and hail with the
   stronger multicells. A severe threat may also continue across far
   northeast Minnesota into far western Lake Superior, where enough
   instability should be in place for an isolated wind-damage threat.
   The severe threat may impact parts of far northern Wisconsin over
   the next few hours. However, the threat is expected to be too
   isolated and marginal for new watch issuance to the east of WW 406.

   Further southwest, isolated cells are developing in far northeast
   South Dakota. Additional cells may also initiate over parts of
   western and southwest Minnesota. Instability along with moderate
   deep-layer shear appears sufficient in this area for an isolated
   severe threat. A few damaging wind gusts and hail reports will be

   ..Broyles.. 06/24/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46109178 45429331 45139426 45019503 44919605 44979673
               45149701 45379708 45629708 45749691 46099604 46539457
               46979364 47949119 48089048 47908988 47578985 47059019

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