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Mesoscale Discussion 1272
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240106Z - 240230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust may accompany the leading line of a storm
   cluster in central South Carolina as it interacts with a sea-breeze
   boundary. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular storm cluster has recently grown
   upscale into a small, loosely organized MCS given recent cold-pool
   mergers. A few damaging gusts have been reported in the past couple
   of hours and KCAE velocity data has shown 40+ kt flow near the
   gust-front leading edge about 500 ft above the ground. Surface
   temperatures remain near 90 F out ahead of the cold pool, with a sea
   breeze also approaching the gust front area. The remaining buoyancy
   and potential cold-pool/sea-breeze merger may briefly enhance
   gust-front intensity and support a damaging gust or two before
   storms weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling. The severe threat
   is expected to remain brief and localized enough to preclude a
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/24/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33638155 33788102 33778057 33568023 33208004 33048014
               32978042 33038082 33108112 33278147 33638155 

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