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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240307Z - 240500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail may accompany a more
   persistent supercell updraft along the U.S./Canada border over the
   next couple of hours. A WW issuance is unlikely given the very
   localized nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...While a couple of left-moving transient supercells have
   been traversing northern ND in the past few hours (perhaps with
   marginally severe hail per MRMS-MESH mosaic radar data), a more
   robust supercell updraft has recently developed just north of the
   SD/MB border near Cavalier County, ND. Despite the onset of
   nocturnal cooling, the BIS and INL 00z observed soundings and 02Z
   mesoanalysis suggest that 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates persist
   across much of the northern Plains, contributing to near 2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE and supporting a modest large hail threat. In addition,
   nearly 40 kts of effective bulk shear is present along the
   international border, which also favors an organized storm mode.  It
   is unclear if this supercell will drift into the U.S. over the next
   couple of hours. Should this storm do so, large hail may occur,
   mainly for far eastern Cavalier into Pembina Counties in ND and
   Kittson County, MN in the near term. Given the spatially confined
   corridor of a limited, conditional large hail threat, a WW issuance
   is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48829868 49049844 49189778 49159689 49049640 48799634
               48589656 48489680 48569767 48679831 48829868 

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