ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 242313 SPC MCD 242313 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-250045- Mesoscale Discussion 1284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern North Dakota into north-central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407... Valid 242313Z - 250045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407, with severe winds becoming the primary concern as storms congeal into squall lines. A WW issuance will be needed downstream. DISCUSSION...Cold-pool mergers from transient supercell structures have supported the upscale growth into a semi-organized MCS across central/eastern North Dakota within the past hour or so, where large hail, damaging gusts, and a few brief tornadoes have recently occurred. South-southeast of the ongoing MCS, surface temperatures around 90F beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 4500 J/kg MLCAPE south of a modified outflow boundary across west-central MN. With time, this boundary is expected to gradually mix northward, with the expectation that the MCS will traverse the associated baroclinic gradient into the evening hours. Enhanced lift and low-level moisture along this boundary, in tandem with the very steep, deep-layer lapse rates, may promote an organized severe-wind threat this evening, including the chance for multiple gusts exceeding 75 mph. Storms are also increasing in coverage across south-central ND along the primary cold front, and these may also contribute to upscale growth/significant severe winds. Given the high degree of storm organization underway this afternoon, the severe threat is expected to persist east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 this evening, and a new WW issuance will eventually be needed across northern into central MN. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46200122 47450081 48339905 48789726 48979578 48899433 48489369 47769356 46639397 45679461 45649585 45809773 46200122 NNNN