ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261508 SPC MCD 261508 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261715- Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...west Kentucky...and far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261508Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist this morning. Marginally severe hail and wind will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move east-southeast this morning across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Additional thunderstorms are developing ahead of this approaching thunderstorm cluster. As these thunderstorms move into or develop within an axis of greater instability stretching from central Arkansas northeast into southeast Missouri, episodic upticks in updraft intensity may occur. As such, thunderstorms may briefly be capable of marginally severe hail and wind, and recent MRMS trends suggest a thunderstorm across Wayne County, Missouri may be capable of hail around 1 inch. Weak deep-layer and effective-layer shear -- as indicated by the circular nature the developing anvils -- should limit the the severe potential to short temporal and small spatial scales, driven primarily by storm-scale processes. A watch is currently not anticipated. ..Marsh/Hart.. 06/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36909127 37829024 38348909 37828778 37008687 35478685 34528790 34328918 34639073 35299134 36909127 NNNN