Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

   Areas affected...Southern NE...Northern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302329Z - 010130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds with isolated 50kt+ wind gusts possible this
   evening across southern NE and northern KS.

   DISCUSSION...Remnants of a very weak mid-level disturbance, that was
   over UT Wednesday evening, have progressed into the central High
   Plains. This feature appears to be partly responsible for scattered
   convection that is evolving across eastern CO into southern NE.
   Latest diagnostic data exhibits a well-defined pre-frontal trough
   draped from southeast NE into southwest KS. Temperatures have soared
   into the 90s to low 100s along this boundary and scattered storms
   are now evolving from southeast of HLC to near HJH. Modest mid-level
   flow extends to near the NE/KS border where roughly 25k of flow
   exists at 500mb. While shear is not that significant, it appears
   adequate flow does exist for the maintenance of at least multicell
   updrafts and perhaps some clustering along the surface trough. Given
   the steep lapse rates gusty winds are certainly possible, along with
   isolated 50kt+ winds. Even so, at this time it does not appear the
   severe risk will be widespread enough to warrant a watch. Convection
   should spread east along the KS/NE border over the next several
   hours.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39229958 40069861 40669684 40039653 39559771 38859894
               39229958